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Home > Energy Reports > Energy Futures > 2008 Energy Futures Workshop - Session 1B - Focus on Alternative and Emerging Energy

2008 Energy Futures Workshop - Session 1B - Focus on Alternative and Emerging Energy

2008 Energy Futures Workshop - Session 1B - Focus on Alternative and Emerging Energy [PDF 262 KB]

2008 Energy Future Workshop
Session 1B
Focus on Alternative and Emerging Energy
Ottawa, Ontario

Presented by
John Bulger
Board Member
National Energy Board

22 January 2008

Good morning, my name is John Bulger, and I will be moderating this concurrent session on the topic of Alternative and Emerging Energy.

Speakers

I would like to start by introducing our panel of experts for this session.

Alternative and Emerging Energy - Defining and Modeling

Alternative and emerging energy are high profile characteristics which define the scenarios in Canada's Energy Future. The core choices for energy in the future are, as they are now - fossil fuel, nuclear, and renewable.

The A & E sector was created, somewhat arbitrarily, by the need to model a few specific technologies apart from the large, mature, existing generation technologies. This categorization does not preclude overlapping technological and environmental advantages within established generation. We recognize the division is debatable; the report recognizes the "renewable" aspect of hydro and the GHG emissions advantage of nuclear power generation. "Alternative and emerging" is used for modeling convenience for capturing many small players in the industry. Society's aspirations for these technologies is immense. The purpose of the Session today is to review specifically how these industries, particularly wind and bio-fuels, are represented in Canada's Energy Future report and to review their ultimate potential in the context of competing markets.

The report attempted to capture all technologies, including small, on-site power generation and waste heat recovery.

Alternative and Emerging Technology - Strong Presence in Generation

The most interesting dynamic of modeling Alternative and Emerging technology in Canada's Energy Future is that technologies exert their influence in all scenarios; however, this happens for different reasons.

In Continuing Trends, ever increasing demand drives the need to find new generation. As all new forms of generation involve higher costs, wind, along with any competitive energy generation, is pursued.

In Triple E, the carbon price policy favours A & E development. There is not only an increase in total installed capacity (wind capacity peaks at 17% by nameplate MW), but its share of the market also increases. A flattening in demand coincides with increasing A & E installed capacity. As a result, there is a big increase in export and transfer opportunities.

The Triple E scenario includes some wave, tidal, geothermal, and other minor contributions. Note: all these technologies are starting from a very small base. Although minor elements in the total generation mix, it should be pointed out these technologies are modeled with exceptional growth rates. This is not immediately apparent from looking at the fuel mix graphs. In addition, "on-site" generation including solar, geo-exchange, and small CHP contributions are captured in the scenario. Also, the biofuel component in Triple E is approximately double that of the other scenarios.

In Fortified Islands, the economy, and hence, demand is in a somewhat of a recession; however, the exception is the energy industry. High commodity prices and energy security concerns drive full exploitation of all Canada's resource options. This includes most of the A & E options.

Triple E: Optimizing the Technology Opportunity

While Triple E is the most optimistic scenario for Alternative and emerging technology, to fully appreciate the impact of the scenario, it must be viewed in the context of a fully integrated, complementary suite of policy options.

The example of ethanol in passenger transportation fuel illustrates this well. Ethanol blended gasoline is present in all scenarios; however, the potential of a renewable fuel policy is most evident in Triple E. First, investment in research and development boosts process efficiency. New technology supports a 10% blend target. Secondly, that fuel blend is being put into more efficient vehicles. Third, the way in which vehicles are used is optimized. Forth, legislation, including urban planning guidelines and the application of carbon price, influences consumption, and lastly, public values embrace more environmentally sustainable living.

A promising renewable fuel, in this case ethanol, contributes around 100 PJ to energy supply mix. This increase, almost 10 fold over 2004 levels, is impressive. The overall impact of this policy in terms of total national energy demand and GHG emissions would be minor. The combination of mutually supportive policies within the scenario come together to provide real significant impact. (in the case of passenger transportation fuel, it's a net decrease in consumption between 2004 and 2030). Analysis includes technology, efficiency, operation, structure, organization, and behaviour and awareness issues. In modeling technology in Canada's Energy Future, all aspects were considered.

Alternative and Emerging Energy Wildcards

There are many unknowns in our energy future. To help guide us through the "wildcards" of energy development, including technology readiness, investment outlooks, and external drivers for technology advancement, we look forward to our presenters' comments. In particular, from the NEB perspective, we welcome comments regarding the treatment of these unknowns within scenarios in Canada's Energy Future. With that, I would like to ask Dr. David Layzell to kick off our presentations.

Extra Slides

Emerging and Alternative Energy Contribution (%) by Source

This chart presents some of the A & E highlights. Many technologies were modeled, and numerous anticipated and potential A & E projects were considered.

The first two columns show the increase in fuel share (% of fuel mix) within electricity generation facilities over the reference and scenario period. The most noticeable shift is the increase in wind power share. The A & E mix includes minor amounts of small hydro, wave, and tidal power, amounting to about 1%.

Small on-site generation is included as part of Alternative and Emerging Energy. This is captured on the demand side. This includes renewable energy and alternative fuels. These are present in all scenarios; however, only make a significant contribution in Triple E.

Technology includes small CHP, solar thermal (3 200 MWt), solar PV (1 200 MW), and geo-exchange (2% of market).

This information is from Appendices 2 "Demand" and Appendices 5 "Electricity Generation".

 

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Date Modified:

2011-10-28