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2008 Energy Futures Workshop
2008 Energy Futures Workshop [PDF 135 KB]
2008 Energy Future Workshop
Ottawa, Ontario
Presented by
John McCarthy
Business Unit Leader
Commodities Business Unit
National Energy Board
22 January 2008
Good Morning everyone. We are pleased to welcome you to our first ever workshop on long-term energy issues in Canada.
Speakers
My name is John McCarthy and I am the Commodities Business Unit leader at the NEB.
I am going to take a few minutes this morning to provide an overview of what we hope to accomplish today. Then I will introduce Abha Bhargava who was the Project Manager of the Energy Futures report. Abha will take 30 minutes to walk us through some of the reports key findings. Following Abha's overview, Andre Caille will provide us a keynote speech on opportunities and challenges facing Canada's energy markets over the next 30 years. There will be time at the end of the session for a question and answer period.
About the Report
I would first like to provide a bit of background. There are a number of significant issues that are facing Canada's energy system over the next three decades. The challenges include:
- high and volatile energy prices;
- continuing geopolitical unrest;
- decreasing conventional reserves;
- the need to diversify supply;
- an ageing and constrained delivery infrastructure;
- and growing environmental concern.
In November 2007, the National Energy Board released a comprehensive energy supply and demand outlook for the years 2005 to 2030 in which we consider these challenges.
We have been conducting these studies since 1967 on roughly a four year frequency. The current edition consists of a reference case analysis from 2005-2015 and an analysis of three scenarios, which extend out to the year 2030.
The National Energy Board has a mandate to monitor the outlook of energy supply and demand in Canadian markets and provide Canadians with energy information. This is the purpose of the report on Canada's Energy Future.
The key objectives of the report are as given in this slide:
- to provide Canadians with unbiased, relevant, comprehensive, expert analysis on energy supply, demand and its economic and environmental implications, which serves as a reference for Canadians;
- to provide discussion with and amongst stakeholders, both during and after the completion of the report on emerging issues of national importance;
- and to inform decision makers of key risks and uncertainties facing the energy future and advise them of regulatory and other issues that need to be addressed.
It is important to underline the amount of consultation that went into the development of this report. We consulted with over 250 energy experts and held two across Canada consultations with representatives from industry, provincial and federal government, academia, NGOs, and interested Canadians.
With this information and our own analysis and understanding, we use a series of economic and geological models to develop quantitative projections of energy supply and demand in Canada. The final work (including all supporting assumptions and data) is provided on a national and regional basis, free of charge, on our website.
Geopolitical Context
This report considers whether there will be adequate energy supplies to meet Canadians' needs until the year 2030. We have examined this question under a variety of scenarios and we can conclude that yes, Canadians will have ample energy supplies over that period. As well, the report underlines a number of important choices Canadians will have to make to meet challenges involving energy production, efficiency, and dealing with energy emissions.
The findings will be detailed in the presentations given throughout the day
Global Energy Demand
Canada's Energy Future report provides a detailed analysis. One of the key purposes of the report is to encourage discussion around long-term energy issues.
Through the Energy Futures analysis we have been able to identify a number of areas of interest to Canadians and to Canada's energy markets in the long-run. The workshop allows us to explore these areas in more detail than could be provided in one report.
It also allows us to explore a broader range of opinions and help to broaden our understanding of issues. Subject matter experts have been invited to share their views on how these key areas of interest will unfold over the next three decades. These experts will not necessarily agree with the specific outcomes laid out in the Energy Futures report. However, any differences should help frame a reasonable range of possibilities for actual future outcomes.
As well, the workshop allows us to discuss issues in a more timely manner, such as the recent emergence of $100 per barrel of oil and recently announced government policies or impending government legislation. This energy workshop can be considered the third and final public consultation for the 2007 Energy Futures project. We hope that information gleaned today will be able to feed into future analysis developed by the Board and by those folks that are participating in todays workshop. To this end, please check back to our website in the coming weeks as we will post the presentations given today as well as a summary of workshop proceedings
Energy and the Environment
The workshop has been organized into four sessions. In just a moment, I will invite the other speakers in this session to come up and present the work that they have prepared but I just want to quickly take care of a few housekeeping issues.
The day has been split into four sessions. This session will be followed by a coffee break and then concurrent sessions will begin in this room and in the one adjacent.
I would like to take this opportunity to thank all the workshop participants. In particular, the speakers who have agreed to share their expertise with us today and who have taken time to put together presentations to ensure this workshop is a success. I would also like to thank everyone who decided to attend today. Your participation, the questions you pose, and the discussions you participate in will help to enhance and extend the groups understanding of the key areas explored.
I hope that everyone finds today to be useful and enjoyable. I encourage you to fill out the workshop evaluation form, which you should have received at registration or that can be picked up at the registration desk. We hope to make this a semi-regular event and so your feedback would be much appreciated.
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