Fact Sheet - Canada's Energy Future 2013: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2035 - Crude Oil and Bitumen Highlights

Fact Sheet - Canada's Energy Future 2013: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2035 - Crude Oil and Bitumen Highlights

Canada's Energy Future 2013: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2035 projects Canada's "most likely" energy future to the year 2035. It includes a Reference Case, with baseline projections based on the current macroeconomic outlook, a moderate view of energy prices, and government policies and programs that were law or near-law at the time the report was prepared. The highlights below are based on the Reference Case. For detailed information, please see Chapter 5 of the full report.

By 2035, Canadian crude oil production reaches 928 10³m³/d (5.8 MMb/d), nearly 75 per cent higher than 2012 production.

Oil sands production is the main contributor to this growth, much of which is via in situ production. Mined oil sands production also grows, but at a slower pace. Tight oil production increases early in the projection, and by 2016 it makes up a quarter of all Canadian non-oil sands production.

Total Canadian Crude Oil and Equivalent Production - Reference Case

Total Canadian Crude Oil and Equivalent Production - Reference Case

Production:

  • Oil Sands Production: By 2035, oil sands bitumen production reaches 796 10³m³/d (5.0 MMb/d), 2.6 times the production for 2012. The majority of the growth occurs in the in situ category, as these projects tend to have better economics compared to mining projects.
  • Oil Sands Upgrading: Upgraded bitumen volumes grow to 252 10³m³/d (1.6 MMb/d) by 2035, but do not keep pace with the overall increase in bitumen production. The portion of total bitumen production that is upgraded declines from 47 per cent in 2010 to 32 per cent in 2035.
  • Tight Oil: Conventional crude oil in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin has reversed its long-standing declining trend. Production continues to ramp up as a result of the successful application of horizontal drilling and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing methods to tight oil reservoirs. Tight oil production increases until 2016, at which point it makes up a quarter of all Canadian non-oil sands production. After 2016, tight oil production declines slowly over the projection period. The decline is uncertain since many of the prospective tight oil plays in Canada are new and have limited information related to drilling and production results.
  • Eastern Canada: Eastern Canada production includes relatively small amounts of oil production from Ontario, but primarily represents the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore fields. Production from Newfoundland and Labrador has been in decline since 2006. A variety of additional offshore production comes online in the medium term. These additions reverse the declining trend, but the decline then resumes in the long-term projection.

Crude Oil Reserves:

  • Canada has remaining oil reserves of 27.2 109m³ (171 billion bbls) as of December 2012, with 98 per cent of this attributed to oil sands bitumen, and the remaining to conventional oil sources. According to the Oil & Gas Journal[1], Canada ranks third globally in terms of proven oil reserves, behind Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

[1] Oil & Gas Journal, December 6, 2012

 

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