Fact Sheet - Canada’s Energy Future 2013: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2035 - Electricity Outlook Highlights

Fact Sheet - Canada’s Energy Future 2013: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2035 - Electricity Outlook Highlights

Canada’s Energy Future 2013: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2035 projects Canada’s "most likely" energy future to the year 2035. It includes a Reference Case, with baseline projections based on the current macroeconomic outlook, a moderate view of energy prices, and government policies and programs that were law or near-law at the time the report was prepared. The highlights below are based on the Reference Case. For detailed information, please see Chapter 8 of the full report.

Canadian electricity supply will experience a steady increase over the projection period.

Hydroelectricity is the primary source of electric power in Canada, accounting for 57 per cent of total capacity in 2012. Natural gas, coal, and nuclear plants provide most of the remaining supply, while non-hydro renewables such as wind, solar and biomass make up 5.5 per cent of capacity.

In the projection, total electricity generation capacity increases by an average of one per cent per year over the projection period, reaching 164 GW in 2035 (up from 134 GW in 2012). Sufficient capacity will also need to be constructed to meet growing demand while maintaining adequate reserve margins. In addition, as existing facilities age, they will need to be replaced for reliability, economic and/or environmental reasons.

Natural gas-fired power generation capacity increases substantially. Coal-fired generation capacity declines, largely a result of federal and provincial regulations. Non-hydro renewable capacity doubles its share of Canada’s electricity capacity mix. Total electricity generation increases 27 per cent over the projection period.

Capacity by Primary Fuel, Reference Case

Capacity by Primary Fuel, Reference Case

The electricity fuel mix in Canada changes over the projection period. The changes reflect government and industry efforts to curb energy-related greenhouse gas emissions and take into account provincial energy strategies, utility expansion plans, and the relative economics of generation options. Because of higher growth in other types of generation, the share of nuclear power in the total capacity mix declines from nine to seven per cent from 2012 to 2035, and the share of hydro decreases from 57 to 52 per cent over the same period. In contrast, the proportion of capacity from non-hydro renewables increases from six per cent to 13 per cent. The share of CO2 emitting sources (such as natural gas, diesel, oil, coke and coal) decreases slightly from 28 to 26 per cent.

Capacity Mix by Primary Fuel, 2012 and 2035, Reference Case

Capacity Mix by Primary Fuel, 2012 and 2035, Reference Case

 

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