Fact Sheet - Canada’s Energy Future 2013: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2035 - Energy Demand Highlights

Fact Sheet - Canada’s Energy Future 2013: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2035 - Energy Demand Highlights

Canada's Energy Future 2013: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2035 projects Canada's "most likely" energy future to the year 2035. It includes a Reference Case, with baseline projections based on the current macroeconomic outlook, a moderate view of energy prices, and government policies and programs that were law or near-law at the time the report was prepared. The highlights below are based on the Reference Case. For detailed information, please see Chapter 4 of the full report.

Total end-use energy demand increases by an average of 1.1 per cent per year.

Overall, energy demand growth slows compared to the historical trend, where demand grew at an average of 1.4 per cent from 1990 to 2008. In the projection, growth is led by the industrial sector, which grows at an annual average rate of 1.4 per cent. This is related to strong growth in natural resource industries, such as mining and the oil and gas sector, as well as other energy-intensive manufacturing sectors that gradually recover from the recent economic downturn.

End-Use Energy Demand By Sector, Reference Case

End-Use Energy Demand By Sector, Reference Case

Total energy intensity, measured as energy use per dollar of real gross domestic product, decreases by an average annual rate of 1.0 per cent over the projection period. This continues the historical trend, where energy intensity declined by an average of 1.2 per cent per year from 1990 to 2008. Energy intensity is influenced by a variety of factors, including improvements in energy efficiency and structural shifts in the economy.

In a reversal of the long-term trend, passenger transportation energy use declines over the projection, largely due to new passenger vehicle emission standards which are expected to improve vehicle fuel efficiency. Energy

demand for freight transportation, however, is driven by growth in the goods-producing industries, and grows at an annual average rate of 2.0 per cent over the projection period.

In 2011, passenger travel accounted for 54 per cent of transportation demand, freight for 42 per cent, and the remainder in non-industrial off-road. In 2020 these shares reverse, with freight accounting for 56 per cent, and passenger for 40 per cent by 2035.

 

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