Report Methodology Overview

Studies such as Canada’s Energy Future 2013 (EF 2013) are part of the National Energy Board’s (NEB’s) mandate to monitor all aspects of energy supply, transportation and use in Canada. Providing this information is part of the NEB’s objective of publicly sharing a view of reasonably foreseeable requirements for energy use in Canada, taking into account trends in oil-and-gas discoveries.

The NEB has a long history dating back to 1967 of providing Canadians with long term energy supply and demand information.

Report overview

  • EF 2013 projects energy supply and demand for Canada to the year 2035. It includes a Reference Case, with baseline projections based on the current macroeconomic outlook, a moderate view of energy prices, and government policies and programs that were law or near-law at the time the report was prepared. It is considered the “most likely” outcome for Canada’s energy future.
  • In addition to the Reference Case, EF 2013 considers two sensitivity cases to provide broader perspective and to reflect the uncertainty around energy prices. The sensitivity cases are referred to as the High Price and Low Price Cases. The sensitivity cases differ from the Reference Case by changing the underlying price assumptions (Figure 1).

Figure 1 - Price Projections to 2035, All Cases

Figure 1 - Price Projections to 2035, All Cases

  • There are four key assumptions underpinning this analysis:
    • All energy production will find markets and infrastructure will be built as needed.
    • Environmental and socio-economic considerations, beyond the included policies and programs, are outside the scope of this analysis.
    • Only policies and programs that are law or near law at the time of writing are included in the projections. As a result, any policies under consideration, or new policies developed after the projections were completed, are not included in this analysis.
    • Energy markets are constantly evolving. The analysis presented in EF 2013 is based on the best available information at the time of finalizing the analysis and results.

Modeling Framework

  • The Energy Futures report includes a wide range of projections of Canadian energy supply and demand. These projections result from a modeling system consisting of several components that interact to produce integrated projections of Canadian energy supply and demand. A simplified diagram of the modeling system used to develop the Energy Futures report is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2 - Energy Futures Modeling System

Click here for a larger version of the chart.

Figure 2.1 illustrates how the various components of the Energy Futures modeling system interact to create the Energy Futures projections. The central components are ENERGY 2020 and The Informetrica Model. These models run sequentially and iteratively for each year to model the interaction between energy and the economy. Other components of the modeling system include: the crude oil, natural gas, refinery balances, NGL, and coal supply modules. Each component of the modeling system produces final projection results and/or provides inputs into other components.

  • The Energy Futures modeling framework contains seven key components. The two central components are ENERGY 2020 (labeled A.1 in Figure 2) and The Informetrica Model (TIM, A.2). These are supported by the crude oil (B), natural gas (C), refinery balances (D), NGL (E) and coal supply (F) modules. Each component requires inputs and produces outputs. Inputs may be in the form of exogenous assumptions and data, or output from other components of the modeling system. Outputs of the various components produce the final results and/or provide inputs into other components.

Stakeholder Consultation

  • In addition to conducting its own quantitative analysis for this report, the NEB sought the views of Canadian energy experts and interested stakeholders representing industry, government, non-governmental organizations and academia. Two consultations sessions were held during the spring of 2013 in Ottawa and Calgary. Those unable to attend one of these sessions were invited to submit comments on preliminary results electronically.
  • The NEB would like to thank the participants of these consultations, whose observations have been constructive and welcomed. Without the thoughtful participation of these many individuals and groups, the quality of analysis found in the Energy Futures projections would not be possible.

List of Participants and Contributors

  • Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada
  • Alberta Department of Energy
  • Alberta Electric System Operator
  • Association of Major Power Consumers in Ontario
  • Atlantic Provinces Economic Council
  • BC Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources
  • BC Government, Statistics
  • BC Hydro
  • BC Ministry of Environment
  • BC Sustainable Energy Association
  • Canadian Association for Renewable Energies
  • Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
  • Canadian Electricity Association
  • Canadian Energy Research Institute
  • Canadian Environmental Law Association
  • Canadian Gas Association
  • Canadian Hydropower Association
  • Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission
  • Canadian Propane Association
  • Conference Board of Canada
  • David Suzuki Foundation
  • Dawson Strategic
  • Department of Natural Resources, Government of Newfoundland & Labrador
  • Embassy of Canada Washington DC
  • Enbridge Inc.
  • Encana
  • Energy Resources Conservation Board
  • ENVINT Consulting
  • Environment Canada
  • Environment Northeast
  • Finance Canada
  • Forest Products Association of Canada
  • Forward Energy
  • Government of Nova Scotia, Environment
  • Government of Ontario, Energy
  • Government of Saskatchewan, Energy and Resources
  • HEC Montréal
  • Innovation, Energy and Mines, Government of Manitoba
  • Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy, University of Calgary
  • International Emissions Trading Association
  • London Economics International LLC
  • Marine Renewables Canada
  • Maritime Electric
  • Ministère des Ressources naturelles du Québec
  • Natural Resources Canada
  • Navius Research, Inc.
  • NB Power
  • New Brunswick Department of Energy and Mines
  • Nova Scotia Department of Energy
  • Pembina Institute
  • RPEC Inc.
  • SNC-Lavalin
  • TD Securities
  • The Conference Board of Canada
  • The Lightfoot Institute
  • Transport Canada
  • Université d’Ottawa
  • whatIf? Technologies Inc.
  • Ziff Energy Group
  • Various Private Individuals
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