Fact Sheet - Canada’s Energy Future 2016: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040 - Energy Demand Highlights

Canada’s Energy Future 2016: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040 provides projections of Canadian energy supply and demand to the year 2040. Canada’s Energy Future 2016 includes a baseline projection, the Reference Case, based on the current macroeconomic outlook, energy price projections, and government policies and programs that were law or near-law at the time the report was prepared. EF 2016 includes additional projections that vary assumptions on energy prices, energy markets, and infrastructure. For detailed information on Energy Demand, see Chapter 4 of the full report.

Total end-use energy demand increases by an average of 0.7 per cent per year.

In the Reference Case, total end-use energy demand increases but at a slower rate than the historical trend. The figure below shows that energy use increased by 1.3 per cent per year from 1990 to 2013. From 2014 to 2040 energy use increases by nearly half the historical pace, at 0.7 per cent per year.

End-Use Energy Demand By Sector, Reference Case

Historical and Projected Growth in End-Use Energy Demand by Sector, Reference Case

Total energy intensity, measured as energy use per unit of economic activity, decreases by an average annual rate of 1.0 per cent over the projection period. This continues along the historical trend of declining energy intensity, although at a slightly more moderate pace. Energy intensity declined by an average of 1.1 per cent per year from 1990 to 2012. Energy intensity is influenced by a variety of factors, including improvements in energy efficiency.

Energy demand grows slightly faster in the High Price Case, with an average annual rate of 0.8 per cent per year over the projection period. Generally, higher prices decrease energy demand growth as energy is more expensive for consumers. However, this effect is more than offset by higher demand in the oil and natural gas sector. The Low Price Case demand projection is lower than the Reference Case, with growth averaging 0.6 per cent per year. The increased demand growth resulting from lower prices is more than offset by lower activity in the energy industry.


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