Appendix B: Summary of Technology Case Assumptions by Sector

Appendix B: Summary of Technology Case Assumptions by Sector
Global Energy Market Dynamics
Near term (2018-2025) Longer term (2025-2040)
  • Global crude oil, North American natural gas, and OECD carbon pricing aligned with numbers from IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2017 “Sustainable Development Scenario.”
  • Crude oil and natural gas benchmark prices similar to Reference Case levels.
  • Carbon prices begin to diverge from the Reference Case in 2023.
  • Carbon prices reach $100/tonne by 2030, and $140/tonne by 2040.
  • Brent crude oil is $6/bbl lower than the Reference Case in 2030 ($69/bbl), and $11/bbl lower in 2040 ($69/bbl).
  • Henry Hub natural gas is $0.30/MMBtu lower than the Reference Case in 2030 ($3.25/MMBtu), and $0.50/MMBtu lower in 2040 ($3.66/MMBtu). (All prices in 2016 US$)
Canadian Energy Market Dynamics
Near term (2018-2025) Longer term (2025-2040)
  • End-use prices marginally higher given carbon pricing trends.
  • Benchmark prices at or near Reference Case levels.
  • LNG export assumptions at Reference Case levels and begin with 0.75 Bcf/d in 2025.
  • End-use prices for fossil fuels higher than Reference Case, varying by the CO2 content of the fuel.
  • Canadian differentials assumed to be the same as Reference Case, so lower benchmark prices imply lower Canadian prices. WCS and CLS are $11/bbl lower than Reference by 2040. NIT is $0.50/MMBtu lower than Reference by 2040 (prices in 2016 US$).
  • LNG export assumptions at Reference Case levels, reaching 3 bcf/d by 2031.
Electricity Generation
Near term (2018-2025) Longer term (2025-2040)
  • Utility scale solar PV overnight capital costs are 30% lower than the Reference Case by 2025.
  • Onshore wind costs are 6% lower than the Reference Case by 2025.
  • Utility scale solar PV overnight capital costs are 40% lower than the Reference Case by 2040.
  • Onshore wind is 16% lower than the Reference Case by 2040.
  • Increased interprovincial transmission capacity.
  • Improved demand side management.
Oil and Gas Production
Near term (2018-2025) Longer term (2025-2040)
  • Steam solvent technology for in situ production achieves wide-scale commercial use, all new production by 2025 uses the technology.
  • Steam-solvents applied to some existing reservoirs.
  • Pure solvent technology achieves commercialization and is applied to all new production by 2030.
  • Output based allocations completely phased out by 2035.
  • Energy intensity improvements for non-oil sands crude and natural gas production driven by carbon costs and increasingly competitive market.
Residential and Commercial Buildings
Near term (2018-2025) Longer term (2025-2040)
  • Building shell and process improvements reduce energy needs in new buildings.
  • High efficiency natural gas heating becomes standard for regions dominated by natural gas heat.
  • Heat pumps make up to 10% of new sales by 2025 in jurisdictions with a high share of electric heating, and 2 to 5% for jurisdictions dominated by natural gas.
  • Building shell improvements and process improvements reduce energy requirements significantly for new builds, as well as retrofits.
  • Heat pump purchase costs are 20 to 30% lower than current levels, and make up 40 to 70% of new sales by 2040 in the provinces, some of which may be hybrid systems with high efficiency natural gas.
  • Increased integration with electricity production and use for transportation to balance generation and loads.
Transportation
Near term (2018-2025) Longer term (2025-2040)
  • Average EV costs are 10% lower than the Reference Case, and 30% lower than current levels by 2025.
  • Average ethanol blends in gasoline are 10% and 6% biodiesel by 2025.
  • Vehicle emission standards remain at Reference Case levels.
  • Efficiency improvements in aviation.
  • Average EV costs are 10 to 15% lower than the Reference Case, and 50 to 60% lower than current levels.
  • EV penetration is on average 35% of new passenger vehicle sales in 2030, and averages nearly 65% by 2040.
  • Conventional vehicle efficiency improves by 1 to 1.5% per year after current emission standards (2025 for passenger, 2028 for freight).
  • Biofuel blends increase to 15% for gasoline and diesel by 2040.
  • Aviation efficiency improves relative to the reference case, with 15% biofuel blending by 2040.
  • Moderate electrification of heavy-duty freight sector towards the end of the projection, 5 to 8% of new sales by 2035-2040.
Other Industrial
Near term (2018-2025) Longer term (2025-2040)
  • Improvements in average new device and process by 5 to 10% compared to the Reference Case.
  • Biofuel and natural gas blending as described in transportation/RNG sections.
  • Sector adopts best available technologies. Average device and process performance improves by 15 to 30% compared to the Reference Case by 2040 Improved processes, like material recycling, reduce energy requirements.
  • Biofuel and natural gas blending as described in transportation/RNG sections.
Multi-sector Technologies
Near term (2018-2025) Longer term (2025-2040)
  • Renewable natural gas deployed, reaching 2% of mix by 2025.
  • CCS begins to regain some momentum.
  • RNG blends reach nearly 4% by 2030, 10% by 2040.
  • CCS capacity reaches 10 MT by 2030 and 45 MT by 2040, with additions across industry, power, and oil and gas production.
Northern Territories
Near term (2018-2025) Longer term (2025-2040)
  • Increased biofuel blending.
  • Moderate increase in solar and wind electricity.
  • Efficiency improvements match other provinces.
  • Biomass share of heating rises.
  • Lower EV and heat pump adoption compared to other provinces, but same efficiency and biofuel blending rates.
  • Solar (rooftop and community/utility) and wind capacity added to offset diesel generation.
  • Increased use of natural gas delivered via LNG shipments offsets diesel usage.
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