ARCHIVED – 2012 Oil Exports and Imports Summary
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|Less ImportsFootnote 2||113.3||107.3||123.5||128.3||133.4|
|Average Price (Cdn$/m³)|
|Value (Cdn$ billions)|
Sources: NEB, EIA, Bank of Canada Exchange Rate, Statistics Canada
- Exports of crude oil have climbed over the past 5 years. Imports have not risen each year, but rather have been on a downward trend since 2004 with a slight uptick in 2012.
- The 2012 average export price is $525.36 per m³, a decrease of nearly 5 per cent or $25.77 per m³ from the average export price of $551.13 in 2011.
- The 2012 average import price is $701.45 per m³, an increase of around 1.3 per cent when compared with the average import price of $692.76 per m³ in 2011.
- Oil export revenue for 2012 is approximately $71.4 billion, an increase of $3.0 billion or roughly 4.4 per cent from 2011. Over the past 5 years, oil export revenue has climbed each year, with the exception of 2009, when the average export price dropped significantly. Net oil revenue in 2012 is estimated at $42.4 billion.
- The import value of oil in 2012 totals roughly $29.0 billion, an increase of $1.9 billion or over a seven per cent increase from 2011.
Figure 1: Canadian Oil Export Volumes, 2003-2012
- Oil exports increased in 2012 compared with 2011, growing from 340 thousand cubic metres per day (m³/d) in 2011, equivalent to approximately 2.1 million barrels per day (bbl/d), to 372.1 thousand cubic metres per day in 2012 (roughly 2.3 million bbl/d), an increase of over 9.4 per cent.
- Oil export activity in 2012 continues a decade-long pattern of growth, with 2012 exports at 372.1 thousand cubic metres per day (approximately 2.3 million bbl/d), growing from roughly 243.6 thousand cubic metres per day (just over 1.5 million bbl/d) in 2003, for an increase of nearly 52.8 per cent.
Figure 2: Canadian Oil Import Volumes, 2003-2012
Sources: EIA Data, Statistics Canada Data, NEB
- Oil imports into Canada increase in 2012 compared with 2011, totaling 113.3 thousand m³/d, which is approximately 713.8 thousand bbl/d. This represents an increase in import volumes of 5.6 per cent when compared with 2011.
- With the ongoing development of oil sands, diluent and/or condensate (light oils) imports appear to have increased to allow for movement of heavier oil on pipeline transportation systems.
Figure 3: Oil Net Export Volumes, 2003-2012
- 2012 net oil exports total 258.8 thousand m³/d (approx. 1.6 million bbl/d), which is an increase of 11.2 per cent over 2011.
- Over the past five years, net oil exports have grown with a volumetric increase of about 70.7 per cent since 2008.
Figure 4: Export Volumes by Destination, 2003-2012
- 2012 Canadian oil exports to the US East Coast (PADD I) showed a slight decrease in 2012 of approx. 482 thousand m³ (roughly 3 million barrels) when compared with 2011. In 2012, PADD I’s market share of Canada’s crude oil exports is seven per cent.
- The US Midwest (PADD II) continues to be the largest recipient of Canadian crude oil exports. The region received a total of 93.6 million m³ (588.7 million barrels), which is roughly 68.8 per cent of the market share of Canada’s crude oil exports, up from a 67.3 per cent share in 2011. This represents an increase of over 10.2 million m³ (approx. 64.2 million barrels).
- The US Gulf Coast (PADD III) shows a small increase in exports compared with 2011, and currently holds a five per cent market share of Canada’s crude oil exports, totaling just over 6.8 million m³ (about 42.8 million barrels).
- PADD IV (US Rockies) shows slight growth compared with 2011, with oil exports totaling over 13.3 million m³ (approx. 83.8 million barrels) in 2012. PADD IV currently holds a 9.8 per cent market share of Canada’s crude oil exports.
- 2012 exports to the US West Coast (PADD V) increased by roughly 661 thousand m³ (approx. 4.2 million barrels), for a 6.7 per cent increase in exports compared with 2011. PADD V’s market share of Canada’s crude oil exports is 7.7 per cent.
- Non-USA exports in 2012 totals roughly 2.3 million m³ (14.5 million barrels), an increase of about 24% over 2011. Non-USA exports’ market share in 2012 of Canada’s crude oil exports is roughly 1.7 per cent.
Commentary and Outlook
The 2012 oil market is characterized by a shift in transportation systems, with an increase in rail movements of crude oil for exports as well as domestic use. There are new technological advances being made in the oil industry, such as the use of horizontal drilling to improve Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) recovery methods, improved drilling methods, and new innovations in oil sands mining, extraction, and upgrading.
Within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, oil demand is considered to have reached its peak, and there appears to be a shift in growth and investment moving away from (OECD) countries to Non-OECD countries.Footnote 7 Oil demand in North America is lower than in recent years, with growth in oil demand appearing in Non-OECD countries such as China and India.
Noteworthy in 2012, the average crude oil prices are at all-time highs. This is most likely the conclusion of global oil production disruptions in South Sudan, Yemen, Syria, and the North Sea which decreased global oil supplyFootnote 8.
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