2015 Oil Exports and Imports Summary

  2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
Volumes (10³m³/d)
ExportsFootnote 1 484.0 453.7 415.3 372.6 340.0
Less ImportsFootnote 2 90.1 86.4 102.1 115.8 108.0
Net Exports 393.9 367.3 313.2 256.8 232.0
Average Price (Cdn$/m³)
ExportsFootnote 3 321.56 552.56 539.29 526.31 551.22
ImportsFootnote 4 420.81 639.38 703.29 701.45 692.76
Value (Cdn$ billions)
ExportsFootnote 5 56.8 91.5 81.8 71.7 68.4
ImportsFootnote 6 13.8 20.2 26.2 29.0 27.1
Net Revenue 43.0 71.3 55.6 42.7 41.3

Sources: NEB data, EIA, Bank of Canada Exchange Rate, Statistics Canada. (Rounded numbers)

  • The 2015 net exports were approximately 393.9 thousand cubic metres per day (10³m³/d), an increase of 26.6 10³m³/d [167,314 barrels per day (bbl/d)]Footnote 7 or roughly 7.2% over 2014 net export volumes.
  • The 2015 average price for exports was $321.56 Canadian per cubic metre (Cdn$/m³), a decrease of $231.00 per m³, or a 41.8% decline from 2014.
  • The 2015 average crude oil import price was $420.81 Cdn$/m³, a decrease of approximately $218 Cdn$/m³, or 34% from the average import price in 2014.
  • The value of Canadian crude oil exports in 2015 was $56.8 billion in Canadian currency (Cdn$ billions), a decrease of roughly 37.9% compared to 2014.
  • The value of Canadian crude oil exports has increased four of the past five years. However, in 2015 there was a significant decrease in export value because of a lower-valued Canadian dollar and a lower annual average crude oil export price.
  • The value of Canadian crude oil imports in 2015 totaled $13.8 (Cdn$ billions), a 31.7% decrease from 2014, primarily due to the lower average import price for Brent-based crude oils in 2015.
  • Net revenue in 2015 fell to $43.0 (Cdn$ billions), a decrease of 39.7% compared to 2014.

Figure 1: Canadian Crude Oil Export Volumes, 2006-2015

Figure 1: Canadian Crude Oil Export Volumes, 2006-2015

Source: NEB source. CTS data as at 22 Apr 2016. (Rounded numbers)

  • Crude oil exports have increased over the past 10 years while imports have typically been on a downward trend (see Figure 2).
  • Oil exports increased in 2015 compared with 2014, growing by more than 30.3 10³m³/d (190.5 thousand barrels per day (Mbbl/d)) or roughly 7%.
  • Oil exports in 2015 continued a decade-long pattern of growth, with 2015 exports at 484 10³m³/d (3,000 Mbbl/d or 3.0 million /d), compared with 285.5 10³m³/d (1,795 Mbbl/d or almost 1.8 million bbl/d) in 2006. Between 2006 and 2015, exports have increased by approximately 69.5%.

Figure 2: Canadian Crude Oil Import Volumes, 2006-2015

Figure 2: Canadian Crude Oil Import Volumes, 2006-2015

Sources: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 134-0001. NEB Data sources. Data as at 27 April 2016. (Rounded numbers)

  • Oil imports to Canada increased to 90.1 10³m³/d, (566.7 Mbbl/d), a 4.3% increase compared with 2014.
  • Oil imports have been on a downward trend year over year for the past decade, with two exceptions, 2012 and 2015. The increase in 2012 was due to additional imports of diluent and/or condensate (light oils) to facilitate movement of heavier oil in pipeline transportation systems. In 2015, the increase in oil imports was primarily due to the lower Brent spot price and US competitively-priced light crudes, making increased imports to Eastern Canadian refineries more economic.
  • Between 2006 and 2015, imports have declined by about one-third.

Figure 3: Canadian Crude Oil Net Export Volumes, 2006-2015

Figure 3: Canadian Crude Oil Net Export Volumes, 2006-2015

Source: NEB source. CTS data as at 6 April 2016. (Rounded numbers)

  • In 2015, net oil exports were 393.9 10³m³/d, an increase of 26.6 10³m³/d or 7.2% over 2014 levels.
  • Since 2006, crude oil net export volumes have increased more than 162%, rising from 150 10³m³/d (943.5 thousand bbl/d) in 2006 to 393.9 10³m³/d (roughly 2.5 million bbl/d) in 2015.

Figure 4: Canadian Crude Oil Export Volumes by Destination, 2006-2015

Figure 4: Canadian Crude Oil Export Volumes by Destination, 2006-2015

Source: NEB source. (Rounded numbers)

  • Overall, 2015 Canadian crude oil exports to the US are up 6% compared to 2014.
  • The oil exports destined to US East Coast (PADD I) decreased by 1.1 million cubic metres (nearly 7 million barrels), compared to 2014. PADD I’s market share of Canada’s total crude oil exports in 2015 was approximately 7.6%.
  • The US Midwest (PADD II) continued to be the largest market for Canadian crude oil exports. Exports to PADD II were 111.5 million m³ (701 million barrels) which was 63% of Canada’s total crude oil exports in 2015.
  • The US Gulf Coast (PADD III) showed a significant increase in the receipt of Canadian crude oil exports. In 2015, Canadian exports to PADD III were 22.8 million m³ (over 143 million barrels), or 13% of Canada’s total crude oil exports, compared with approximately 10.8 million cubic m³ (68 million barrels) in 2014. This is a volumetric increase of 111% compared with 2014.
  • In 2015, PADD IV (US Rockies) received Canadian crude oil exports of over 15.0 million m³ (over 94 million barrels). The market share was approximately 9%, compared with Canada’s total crude oil exports in 2015.
  • The US West Coast (PADD V) received Canadian crude oil exports of over 12.4 million m³ (78 million barrels), compared with 11.7 million m³ (over 73 million barrels) in 2014. In 2015, PADD V’s market share of Canada’s crude oil exports was just over 6%.
  • In 2015, non-USA exports showed a significant decrease, and totaled 1.5 million m³ (over 9 million barrels), down from 4.6 million m³ (29 million barrels) in 2014. In 2015, the Non-USA market share of Canada’s crude oil exports shrunk to 1%, from 2.8% in 2014.

Commentary

The 2015 global oil market continued with significant shifts in supply and demand. The shale revolution in the United States (US) continued to have a major impact on global oil trade. Growing North American production – U.S shale oil and Canadian oil sands were adding to global oil supply. This supply growth continued into 2015. A milestone event in oil markets occurred in December 2015, when the US Congress lifted its crude oil export ban, which had been in place for over 40 years since the Arab oil embargoes of the 70s.Footnote 8 By the end of 2015, some US crude oil exports were destined for European refineries.

Average world crude oil prices continued to decline in 2015, continuing since the dip in 2014. Various sources noted significant fluctuations in price. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price at Cushing, OK moved to a six-year low in 2015 to US$35 per barrel, with an average per barrel price for the year of US$50, with North Sea-based Brent benchmark averaging US$55 per barrel in 2015.Footnote 9

By the end of 2015, many oil market observers were aware of a fundamental shift in North American oil markets. The fundamental impact of the increasing US shale production meant that the US, traditionally a large importer of crude oil, became one of the largest oil producers in the world and was now a crude oil exporter. This change, along with an expected slowdown in global demand expectations especially in Asia, meant a further increase to the amount of global supply available at the close of 2015.

In 2015, most of Canada’s crude oil exports were destined for the US. There was a marked decrease in Canadian crude oil exports in 2015 to Non-US markets, shrinking year-over-year from 2.8% of market share to roughly 1%. Canada had an almost complete reliance on the US market for its crude oil exports. The large increase in crude oil exports to US PADD III (US Gulf Coast) market was due to new pipeline capacity.Footnote 10

In 2015, Canada’s crude oil exports increased continuing a five-year trend. Since 2010, Canada has contributed nearly 1.3 million barrels per day of net crude oil exports to the global market. Canadian crude oil imports increased in 2015, due in part to the growing availability of price competitive US light crudesFootnote 11.

The 2015 annual average crude oil export price dropped by 42% from 2014. Although Canada’s crude oil export volumes increased in 2015, a lower crude oil export price meant a drop in the value of Canadian crude oil exports from $91.5 (Cdn$ billions) in 2014 to $56.8 (Cdn$ billions) in 2015.

In Canada, the majority of crude oil exports move by pipeline, but other export transportation systems such as rail, marine, and truck are used. Canadian crude oil exports by rail dropped in 2015 to roughly 6.5 million m³ (40.9 million barrels), compared with 2014 levels of approximately 9.4 million m³ (59.1 million barrels); a decrease year over year of over 30%.Footnote 12 This decrease in crude oil exports by rail in 2015 was due in part to pipeline debottlenecking, pipeline capacity increases, availability of competitively-priced imports from offshore, as well as rail’s higher transportation cost to get the crude oil to market. Canada’s crude oil exports by rail to PADD I (US East Coast) decreased from over 5 million m³ (roughly 31.5 million barrels) in 2014 to just under 2.5 million m³ (15.7 million barrels) in 2015.

 

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