Short-term Canadian Natural Gas Deliverability 2016-2018 – Appendices – Table B1 – Factors for Allocation of Gas-Intent Drill Days to Resource Groupings

Historical Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area

Historical Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area
Year 00 – Alberta CBM 01 – South-ern Alberta 02 – South-west Alberta 03 – South-ern Foot-hills 04 – Eastern Alberta 05 – Central Alberta 06 – West Central Alberta 07 – Central Foot-hills 08 – Kaybob 09 – Alberta Deep Basin 10 – North-east Alberta 11 – Peace River 12 – North-west Alberta 13 – BC Deep Basin 14 – Fort St. John 15 – North-east BC (excl Shale) 15 – North-east BC (Shale) 16 – BC Foot-hills 17 – South-west Saskat-chewan 18 – West Saskat-chewan 19 – East Saskat-chewan
2005 25 749 12 406 3 332 399 6 812 8 503 10 808 4 602 2 991 27 082 1 565 4 052 2 409 6 443 5 871 5 795 0 2 218 11 910 1 691 0
2006 11 286 10 938 1 871 391 7 573 4 479 9 356 6 161 3 141 27 174 1 814 4 315 1 769 6 232 5 661 4 661 140 2 449 11 766 996 0
2007 10 930 8 637 1 528 451 3 924 2 826 5 683 3 862 2 696 16 135 1 234 2 201 587 3 219 4 007 2 260 228 2 493 6 347 496 0
2008 7 541 6 390 1 218 78 1 486 2 652 5 828 3 839 2 705 15 389 702 2 783 486 4 200 5 769 1 858 1 162 2 912 6 573 1 719 0
2009 4 866 2 537 335 21 441 741 3 193 2 007 2 348 10 365 280 1 669 179 3 016 4 220 610 5 001 1 427 848 148 0
2010 8 358 5 603 1 001 118 626 1 059 3 399 1 282 2 306 14 385 87 2 303 78 4 373 5 441 818 3 563 3 205 179 15 0
2011 2 733 1 061 295 57 350 388 3 498 978 1 813 13 122 79 1 711 45 2 704 5 911 594 5 568 2 825 119 35 0
2012 320 174 36 0 321 192 2 181 582 2 133 11 058 33 1 323 27 1 090 6 460 60 2 890 2 151 20 37 0
2013 271 390 7 0 83 185 2 948 485 3 761 11 849 13 1 279 0 2 100 6 553 56 2 032 3 678 0 36 0
2014 687 275 4 49 113 75 4 750 335 2 515 15 347 24 1 528 10 1 596 7 986 192 500 4 028 0 73 11

Historical Fraction of Total Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area

Historical Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area
DrlYr 00 – Alberta CBM 01 – South-ern Alberta 02 – South-west Alberta 03 – South-ern Foot-hills 04 – Eastern Alberta 05 – Central Alberta 06 – West Central Alberta 07 – Central Foot-hills 08 – Kaybob 09 – Alberta Deep Basin 10 – North-east Alberta 11 – Peace River 12 – North-west Alberta 13 – BC Deep Basin 14 – Fort St. John 15 – North-east BC (excl Shale) 15 – North-east BC (Shale) 16 – BC Foot-hills 17 – South-west Saskat-chewan 18 – West Saskat-chewan 19 – East Saskat-chewan
2005 0.1780 0.0858 0.0230 0.0028 0.0471 0.0588 0.0747 0.0318 0.0207 0.1872 0.0108 0.0280 0.0167 0.0445 0.0406 0.0401 0.0000 0.0153 0.0823 0.0117 0.0000
2006 0.0924 0.0895 0.0153 0.0032 0.0620 0.0367 0.0766 0.0504 0.0257 0.2224 0.0148 0.0353 0.0145 0.0510 0.0463 0.0382 0.0011 0.0200 0.0963 0.0082 0.0000
2007 0.1371 0.1083 0.0192 0.0057 0.0492 0.0354 0.0713 0.0484 0.0338 0.2023 0.0155 0.0276 0.0074 0.0404 0.0502 0.0283 0.0029 0.0313 0.0796 0.0062 0.0000
2008 0.1002 0.0849 0.0162 0.0010 0.0197 0.0352 0.0774 0.0510 0.0359 0.2044 0.0093 0.0370 0.0065 0.0558 0.0766 0.0247 0.0154 0.0387 0.0873 0.0228 0.0000
2009 0.1100 0.0573 0.0076 0.0005 0.0100 0.0167 0.0722 0.0454 0.0531 0.2342 0.0063 0.0377 0.0040 0.0682 0.0954 0.0138 0.1130 0.0322 0.0192 0.0033 0.0000
2010 0.1436 0.0963 0.0172 0.0020 0.0108 0.0182 0.0584 0.0220 0.0396 0.2472 0.0015 0.0396 0.0013 0.0751 0.0935 0.0141 0.0612 0.0551 0.0031 0.0003 0.0000
2011 0.0623 0.0242 0.0067 0.0013 0.0080 0.0088 0.0797 0.0223 0.0413 0.2990 0.0018 0.0390 0.0010 0.0616 0.1347 0.0135 0.1269 0.0644 0.0027 0.0008 0.0000
2012 0.0103 0.0056 0.0012 0.0000 0.0103 0.0062 0.0702 0.0187 0.0686 0.3557 0.0011 0.0426 0.0009 0.0351 0.2078 0.0019 0.0930 0.0692 0.0006 0.0012 0.0000
2013 0.0076 0.0109 0.0002 0.0000 0.0023 0.0052 0.0825 0.0136 0.1053 0.3317 0.0004 0.0358 0.0000 0.0588 0.1834 0.0016 0.0569 0.1030 0.0000 0.0010 0.0000
2014 0.0171 0.0069 0.0001 0.0012 0.0028 0.0019 0.1185 0.0084 0.0627 0.3827 0.0006 0.0381 0.0002 0.0398 0.1992 0.0048 0.0125 0.1005 0.0000 0.0018 0.0003

Projected Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area – Mid-Range Price Case

Projected Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area – Mid-Range Price Case
DrlYr 00 – Alberta CBM 01 – South-ern Alberta 02 – South-west Alberta 03 – South-ern Foot-hills 04 – Eastern Alberta 05 – Central Alberta 06 – West Central Alberta 07 – Central Foot-hills 08 – Kaybob 09 – Alberta Deep Basin 10 – North-east Alberta 11 – Peace River 12 – North-west Alberta 13 – BC Deep Basin 14 – Fort St. John 15 – North-east BC (excl Shale) 15 – North-east BC (Shale) 16 – BC Foot-hills 17 – South-west Saskat-chewan 18 – West Saskat-chewan 19 – East Saskat-chewan
2015 315 35 0 25 35 104 1 792 192 1 189 8 148 6 848 0 910 5 600 85 0 1 094 0 14 0
2016 343 38 0 27 38 114 1 969 210 1 302 8 881 7 917 0 985 6 056 94 0 1 183 0 15 0
2017 376 42 0 30 42 126 2 181 230 1 437 9 716 7 992 0 1 066 6 552 104 0 1 280 0 17 0
2018 415 46 0 33 46 140 2 435 254 1 604 10 685 8 1 078 0 1 160 7 118 117 0 1 391 0 18 0

Projected Fraction of Total Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area – Mid-Range Price Case

Projected Fraction of Total Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area – Mid-Range Price Case
DrlYr 00 – Alberta CBM 01 – South-ern Alberta 02 – South-west Alberta 03 – South-ern Foot-hills 04 – Eastern Alberta 05 – Central Alberta 06 – West Central Alberta 07 – Central Foot-hills 08 – Kaybob 09 – Alberta Deep Basin 10 – North-east Alberta 11 – Peace River 12 – North-west Alberta 13 – BC Deep Basin 14 – Fort St. John 15 – North-east BC 15 – North-east BC (Shale) 16 – BC Foot-hills 17 – South-west Saskat-chewan 18 – West Saskat-chewan 19 – East Saskat-chewan
2015 0.0154 0.0017 0.0000 0.0012 0.0017 0.0051 0.0879 0.0094 0.0583 0.3996 0.0003 0.0416 0.0000 0.0446 0.2746 0.0042 0.0000 0.0536 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000
2016 0.0155 0.0017 0.0000 0.0012 0.0017 0.0051 0.0888 0.0095 0.0587 0.4004 0.0003 0.0413 0.0000 0.0444 0.2731 0.0042 0.0000 0.0534 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000
2017 0.0155 0.0017 0.0000 0.0012 0.0017 0.0052 0.0901 0.0095 0.0594 0.4015 0.0003 0.0410 0.0000 0.0441 0.2708 0.0043 0.0000 0.0529 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000
2018 0.0156 0.0017 0.0000 0.0012 0.0017 0.0053 0.0917 0.0096 0.0604 0.4025 0.0003 0.0406 0.0000 0.0437 0.2681 0.0044 0.0000 0.0524 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000

Projected Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area – Higher Price Case

Projected Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area – Higher Price Case
DrlYr 00 – Alberta CBM 01 – South-ern Alberta 02 – South-west Alberta 03 – South-ern Foot-hills 04 – Eastern Alberta 05 – Central Alberta 06 – West Central Alberta 07 – Central Foot-hills 08 – Kaybob 09 – Alberta Deep Basin 10 – North-east Alberta 11 – Peace River 12 – North-west Alberta 13 – BC Deep Basin 14 – Fort St. John 15 – North-east BC (excl Shale) 15 – North-east BC (Shale) 16 – BC Foot-hills 17 – South-west Saskat-chewan 18 – West Saskat-chewan 19 – East Saskat-chewan
2015 315 35 0 25 35 104 1 792 192 1 189 8 148 6 848 0 910 5 600 85 0 1 094 0 14 0
2016 377 42 0 30 42 125 2 159 230 1 427 9 739 7 1 006 0 1 080 6 642 103 0 1 298 0 17 0
2017 478 53 0 38 53 160 2 773 293 1 827 12 353 9 1 261 0 1 356 8 330 133 0 1 628 0 21 0
2018 564 63 0 45 63 190 3 311 346 2 181 14 531 11 1 465 0 1 577 9 679 159 0 1 892 0 25 0

Projected Fraction of Total Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area – Higher Price Case

Projected Fraction of Total Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area – Higher Price Case
DrlYr 00 – Alberta CBM 01 – South-ern Alberta 02 – South-west Alberta 03 – South-ern Foot-hills 04 – Eastern Alberta 05 – Central Alberta 06 – West Central Alberta 07 – Central Foot-hills 08 – Kaybob 09 – Alberta Deep Basin 10 – North-east Alberta 11 – Peace River 12 – North-west Alberta 13 – BC Deep Basin 14 – Fort St. John 15 – North-east BC 15 – North-east BC (Shale) 16 – BC Foot-hills 17 – South-west Saskat-chewan 18 – West Saskat-chewan 19 – East Saskat-chewan
2015 0.0154 0.0017 0.0000 0.0012 0.0017 0.0051 0.0879 0.0094 0.0583 0.3996 0.0003 0.0416 0.0000 0.0446 0.2746 0.0042 0.0000 0.0536 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000
2016 0.0155 0.0017 0.0000 0.0012 0.0017 0.0051 0.0888 0.0095 0.0587 0.4004 0.0003 0.0413 0.0000 0.0444 0.2731 0.0042 0.0000 0.0534 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000
2017 0.0155 0.0017 0.0000 0.0012 0.0017 0.0052 0.0901 0.0095 0.0594 0.4015 0.0003 0.0410 0.0000 0.0441 0.2708 0.0043 0.0000 0.0529 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000
2018 0.0156 0.0017 0.0000 0.0012 0.0017 0.0053 0.0917 0.0096 0.0604 0.4025 0.0003 0.0406 0.0000 0.0437 0.2681 0.0044 0.0000 0.0524 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000

Projected Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area – Lower Price Case

Projected Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area – Lower Price Case
DrlYr 00 – Alberta CBM 01 – South-ern Alberta 02 – South-west Alberta 03 – South-ern Foot-hills 04 – Eastern Alberta 05 – Central Alberta 06 – West Central Alberta 07 – Central Foot-hills 08 – Kaybob 09 – Alberta Deep Basin 10 – North-east Alberta 11 – Peace River 12 – North-west Alberta 13 – BC Deep Basin 14 – Fort St. John 15 – North-east BC (excl Shale) 15 – North-east BC (Shale) 16 – BC Foot-hills 17 – South-west Saskat-chewan 18 – West Saskat-chewan 19 – East Saskat-chewan
2015 315 35 0 25 35 104 1 792 192 1 189 8 148 6 848 0 910 5 600 85 0 1 094 0 14 0
2016 320 36 0 25 36 106 1 833 195 1 212 8 270 6 854 0 917 5 639 87 0 1 102 0 14 0
2017 329 37 0 26 37 110 1 906 201 1 256 8 493 6 867 0 932 5 728 91 0 1 119 0 15 0
2018 332 37 0 26 37 112 1 950 204 1 284 8 558 6 863 0 929 5 701 94 0 1 114 0 15 0

Projected Fraction of Total Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area – Lower Price Case

Projected Fraction of Total Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area – Lower Price Case
DrlYr 00 – Alberta CBM 01 – South-ern Alberta 02 – South-west Alberta 03 – South-ern Foot-hills 04 – Eastern Alberta 05 – Central Alberta 06 – West Central Alberta 07 – Central Foot-hills 08 – Kaybob 09 – Alberta Deep Basin 10 – North-east Alberta 11 – Peace River 12 – North-west Alberta 13 – BC Deep Basin 14 – Fort St. John 15 – North-east BC 15 – North-east BC (Shale) 16 – BC Foot-hills 17 – South-west Saskat-chewan 18 – West Saskat-chewan 19 – East Saskat-chewan
2015 0.0154 0.0017 0.0000 0.0012 0.0017 0.0051 0.0879 0.0094 0.0583 0.3996 0.0003 0.0416 0.0000 0.0446 0.2746 0.0042 0.0000 0.0536 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000
2016 0.0155 0.0017 0.0000 0.0012 0.0017 0.0051 0.0888 0.0095 0.0587 0.4004 0.0003 0.0413 0.0000 0.0444 0.2731 0.0042 0.0000 0.0534 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000
2017 0.0155 0.0017 0.0000 0.0012 0.0017 0.0052 0.0901 0.0095 0.0594 0.4015 0.0003 0.0410 0.0000 0.0441 0.2708 0.0043 0.0000 0.0529 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000
2018 0.0156 0.0017 0.0000 0.0012 0.0017 0.0053 0.0917 0.0096 0.0604 0.4025 0.0003 0.0406 0.0000 0.0437 0.2681 0.0044 0.0000 0.0524 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000

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